How Real Estate Overtook Oil in Nigeria’s GDP Rankings

Nigeria’s real estate industry has climbed to become the third largest contributor to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), surpassing crude oil and natural gas, according to the latest rebased GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The updated data, which reflects a shift to a 2019 base year, shows that the real estate sector’s contribution surged from N22 trillion (6.24%) under previous estimates to N41.2 trillion (10.78%) in 2024. This positions the sector just behind crop production and trade, which remain the top two contributors.

Crop production now leads with N61.9 trillion (17.58%), followed closely by trade at N67.9 trillion (17.42%).

Telecommunications also maintained its strong performance, ranking fourth with a GDP contribution of N25.4 trillion (6.78%). In contrast, the oil and gas sector dropped to fifth place, contributing N14.6 trillion (5.85%), marking a significant decline from its former third-place position before the rebasing.

The GDP rebasing is a standard economic procedure used to provide a more accurate representation of the economy by adjusting data to reflect current realities and structural changes.

Real estate has emerged as the third largest contributor to Nigeria’s economy, accounting for 10.78% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The NBS attributed this significant rise to improved data coverage of the informal segment within the real estate sector.

“With the GDP now rebased to the 2019 base year, the real estate sector has moved up to third place, pushing crude oil and natural gas down to fifth,” the report noted.

The surge in the real estate sector’s contribution to Nigeria’s GDP is largely attributed to improved tracking of activities within the informal real estate market, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The NBS report highlighted the top five contributors to the GDP following the rebasing to the 2019 base year: crop production (17.58%), trade (17.42%), real estate (10.78%), and telecommunications (6.78%).

Q1 2025 Performance

The real estate sector showed strong growth in the first quarter of 2025, recording a nominal expansion of 18.08%, a significant jump from the 8.73% growth posted in the previous quarter.

In real terms, the sector contributed 13.30% to the GDP in Q1 2025, slightly higher than the 13.11% recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

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Nigeria’s persistent housing shortage continues to fuel rising demand for residential properties, a trend clearly reflected in the robust performance of the real estate sector in the newly rebased GDP figures.

This marks a significant shift from the long-standing dominance of the oil and gas industry, highlighting real estate as an emerging force in the country’s economic landscape.

Speaking with PREMIUM TIMES on Tuesday, Faji Tobiloba, Business Executive and Project Lead at Besitz Group, emphasized that the real estate boom is largely driven by an urgent need for accommodation amid a critical housing deficit.

According to Mr. Faji, Nigeria faces a staggering housing shortfall of over 28 million units. To meet this demand in the short to medium term, at least 700,000 new homes must be constructed annually.

“The reasons are clear,” he explained. “We’re dealing with a housing deficit of more than 28 million. That means we need to deliver about 700,000 homes every year. But in reality, that’s a massive challenge. How many developers can meet that scale? How many players in the real estate space have the capacity?”

He added, “People need shelter—homes, roofs over their heads. That basic need is what’s pushing the real estate sector forward so rapidly.”

The real estate consultant further emphasized that the sector’s growth is sustainable and not prone to collapse, citing rising demand driven by tourism, vacation housing, and internal migration.

He described the industry as a “bubble that won’t burst,” pointing to the constant cycle of housing needs across generations.

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“The real estate sector will continue to grow — and not in reverse,” he explained. “Take a simple example: as young people grow up, they leave their parents’ homes to start their own families, which creates demand for new housing. Then their children do the same. This cycle ensures that the need for accommodation and shelter is continuous and unending.”

Mr. Faji further highlighted that the demand for housing extends beyond just growing families—it also stems from ongoing migration patterns within and into the country.

“There will always be a need for shelter,” he said. “People are constantly relocating—whether it’s across states or into Nigeria from abroad. Whether for short stays, permanent moves, or better opportunities, they all require accommodation.”

Addressing skepticism around the sector’s longevity, he countered: “Some believe real estate is a bubble waiting to burst, but I disagree. It’s a bubble that will never burst. As people continue to move from rural to urban areas, seek vacation spots, pursue greener pastures, or settle permanently, the demand for real estate will only keep rising. And the sector is well-positioned to absorb that demand.”