Analysts say Musk’s proposed ‘America Party’ could pose a challenge to Trump’s political influence.

Donald Trump dismissed Elon Musk’s creation of the “America Party” as “ridiculous,” but political analysts say the move highlights a growing threat to Republican control of Congress.

Musk unveiled the new party over the weekend, shortly after Trump approved a sweeping domestic policy package—one the tech billionaire criticized for its projected impact on the national deficit.

Though Musk has yet to outline a detailed platform, he is reportedly planning to challenge select House and Senate incumbents—especially Republicans who backed Trump’s bill despite advocating for fiscal restraint.

Experts warn that Musk’s new political venture could be a disruptive force in the 2026 midterm elections, potentially reshaping key races and complicating Republican efforts to hold their slim majorities.

“With Republicans holding only narrow leads in Congress, they have reason to be concerned,” said political analyst Matt Shoemaker, a former GOP congressional candidate and ex-intelligence officer.

Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest individual, has been hinting at forming a new political party for weeks. A June social media poll he conducted showed overwhelming support—80% of 5.6 million respondents backed the idea.

Unlike most third-party efforts, Musk’s venture comes with vast financial resources and a personal brand that resonates deeply with many young American men, who view him as a visionary and iconoclast.

“His appeal lies with independent-minded, younger voters—especially those tuned into tech—who might otherwise lean Republican in competitive districts,” Shoemaker told AFP.

Potential Disruptor in 2026

With a reported net worth of $405 billion, Musk has already made his mark on the political scene—pouring $277 million into Trump’s 2024 campaign. However, his $20 million investment in a failed Wisconsin Supreme Court race showed that money and celebrity don’t always guarantee political wins.

Musk also faces the challenge of reaching voters outside his Silicon Valley base, particularly in middle America, where cultural and political values may not align with his persona.

Once widely admired, Musk’s favorability has taken a hit in recent years—his current net approval rating stands at -18.1, according to pollster Nate Silver, compared to Trump’s -6.6.

“Today’s Republican base is tightly intertwined with the MAGA movement,” said Flavio Hickel, political science professor at Washington College. “It’s unlikely Musk’s movement could peel away voters who still strongly back Trump.”

History Is Against Him

Third-party successes in U.S. politics have been rare. In the last century, only two minor parties—the Conservative Party of New York in the 1970s and the Farmer–Labor Party in the 1930s—managed to win Senate seats. Wins in the House have been just as elusive, with only one third-party victory since the 1950s.

Experts also point to structural barriers that hinder third-party candidates, such as complex state-by-state regulations, signature requirements, and filing fees.

“Remember the ‘No Labels’ party in early 2024 that aimed to offer a centrist option? They collapsed spectacularly,” said veteran political strategist Matt Klink.

While few believe Musk’s “America Party” will claim congressional seats, many analysts agree it could still shake up the GOP by drawing votes from vulnerable Republican incumbents or financially backing challengers to Trump-endorsed candidates.

“Elon’s party may not win elections,” said Evan Nierman, CEO of crisis PR firm Red Banyan, “but it could cause serious damage—just a small shift in votes could flip control in tight districts.”